For the people who study disease outbreaks, there's always a fear that a new infection or outbreak that nobody knows about will catch us unaware.

There are literally thousands of unknown viruses circulating around the globe, and dozens of incurable diseases for the CDC (Centre for Disease Control) to worry about. As if this weren't enough, we have labs around the world that experiment on biological agents to make them more deadly – all it takes is for one of these pathogens to find a human host and we have a real situation in our hands.   

The World Health Organisation recently put out a blueprint highlighting their research on priority diseases, and as you might expect there were a lot of known threats like Ebola; but they also added what they see as a new global threat: Disease X.       

What is disease X?    

It is the unknown.

All the other diseases on the list are known conditions like the haemorrhagic fever Ebola, or other recent cases like SARS or Zika, but the WHO has reason to be worried.

Bacteria and viruses often mutate and become deadlier and more infectious, and there's always a risk that new diseases could jump from their host to humans.

If a new pathogen appears and causes a pandemic, it’s likely that we won't know how to react to it.      Like we've seen with other pathogens such as the Zika virus, we're not prepared to handle a global pandemic, and if such a disease struck today the effects would be catastrophic.

What can we expect from disease X?  

According to the WHO, disease X could turn out to be a mutation of a disease we don't yet consider serious. It's not unusual for a non-threatening disease to mutate.

As we saw with coronaviruses like SARS and MERS, even the most innocuous virus can evolve into a serious pandemic that kills thousands. Just like the Zika virus, these were considered relatively safe until they mutated and killed people.     

A Mutated Flu    

Virologists and other experts warn of a looming global pandemic that could possibly come from a mutated version of a known pathogen.

One of the most genuine threats we face is that of a mutated flu, and as we count a hundred years since the 1918 influenza pandemic, some people believe the next pandemic is overdue.

According to George Poste, a member of the Blue Ribbon Study Panel that focuses on Biodefense, and a fellow of the Harvard Medical School, a pandemic is inevitable in our generation.      

Our factory farm system might turn out to be the perfect breeding ground for renegade bacteria and viruses. We have so many birds and pigs being reared in the same space, and its possible that a bird flu can acquire genes that allow it to infect mammals like pigs - and humans.

The viruses that come out of that could one day infect humans on a pandemic scale.   To keep these kinds of threats manageable, we probably need a number of disease-monitoring organizations that focus on emerging threats and bioterrorism.

Remember, a new outbreak is going to happen at some point; it’s how we respond to it that matters. For now, disease X is still a talking point, but the World Health Organisation is warning us to stay alert and informed, just in case a pandemic hits.

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